Diwali phone pricing trends
During this Diwali season, a phone shop visit may leave you puzzled. The usual festive discounts seem smaller.
The phone you were eyeing in January now costs more.
The ‘budget’ 5G phone isn’t really budget anymore.
Shopkeeper explanations often sound like ‘memory ka rate badh gaya has’. This trend shapes Phones 2026.
He’s right, actually. 2026 has been the strangest year for smartphones in India that I can remember on this blog. Let me walk you through what happened, what the numbers say, and, most importantly, whether you should buy a phone now or hold on.
A quick note before we start: supremephones.in is independent. Nobody paid for this post, and no brand has seen it before you.
The short version
Memory chips (DRAM, the RAM in your phone, and NAND, the storage) got very expensive because AI data centers are buying memory in huge quantities. Phone makers passed that cost on to us. According to Counterpoint Research, smartphone prices in India rose 16 per cent on average in the first half of 2026, and phones under Rs 10,000 got about 32 per cent costlier.
That’s the headline. Now the details.
Why your phone’s RAM got expensive
AI data centers are eating the memory
The big three memory makers, Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron, can only make so much memory. Additionally, over the last year, they’ve shifted more capacity toward high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and server DRAM for AI servers. HBM is far more profitable than LPDDR memory used in Redmi or Galaxy A phones. So Phones 2026 get whatever’s left, at a higher price.
Even in August, TrendForce noted that Samsung and SK hynix were still adjusting production towards server DRAM and HBM, which makes it hard for mobile DRAM supply to grow in the short term.
How big were the price jumps?
Bigger than anything I’ve seen covered on this blog before. According to TrendForce, mobile DRAM contract prices in the April-June quarter (2Q26) jumped:
- LPDDR4X: at least 70-75 per cent, quarter on quarter
- LPDDR5X: 78-83 per cent, quarter on quarter
And that came after several quarters of increases already. Counterpoint says memory prices have risen nearly four times since September 2025.
There is a small bit of relief. TrendForce expected mobile DRAM contract prices to rise “only” 8-13 per cent in the July-September quarter, as phone makers had finished stocking up and started pushing back on suppliers. Slower growth is still growth, though. Prices are not coming down.
And it’s not ending soon
This is the part that matters for anyone planning to wait it out.
Moreover, Micron’s CEO Sanjay Mehrotra told investors that demand will exceed supply in 2027 and 2028.
Phones 2026 will see customers pay much higher prices than this year, as reported by India Today.
Counterpoint expects memory prices to stay high until 2028.
IDC India’s Upasana Joshi expects supply constraints to last until at least mid-2027.
A weaker rupee hasn’t helped either, since most of these components are imported.
What it did to phone prices in India
The overall picture
According to Counterpoint, as reported by Digit and India Today:
- Average smartphone prices in India rose 16 per cent in H1 2026.
- Phones under Rs 10,000 rose about 32 per cent on average, and shipments in that segment fell 65 per cent year on year.
- The single biggest price increase in the industry was 113 per cent on one model.
- OnePlus kept its average hike to about 8 per cent, reportedly because it stocked up on components early.
By March 2026, Counterpoint found that over 80 of 200 smartphone models in India had seen price hikes, averaging around 15 per cent (as reported by The Hindu BusinessLine). IDC’s Upasana Joshi put it plainly: entry-level 5G phones that used to cost around Rs 9,000 are now closer to Rs 12,000.
Named models that got costlier
Here are some real examples, with old and new prices as reported:
| Phone (variant) | Old price | New price | Source |
| Samsung Galaxy M47 (6GB/128GB) | Rs 25,999 | Rs 32,999 | India Today |
| Samsung Galaxy M47 (8GB/128GB) | Rs 28,999 | Rs 36,999 | India Today |
| Vivo T5 Pro (8GB/128GB) | Rs 32,999 | Rs 35,999 | India Today |
| Vivo T5 Pro (8GB/256GB) | Rs 35,999 | Rs 39,999 | India Today |
| Poco X8 Pro Max (12GB/256GB) | Rs 44,999 | Rs 46,999 | India Today |
| Poco X8 Pro (8GB/256GB) | Rs 34,999 | Rs 36,999 | India Today |
| Poco M8 (6GB/128GB) | Rs 20,999 | Rs 21,999 | India Today |
| Oppo K13 5G | Rs 17,999 | Rs 22,999 | Beebom tracker |
| Oppo K14x | Rs 12,999 | Rs 16,999 | Beebom tracker |
| Oppo A6s | Rs 18,999 | Rs 24,999 | Beebom tracker |
| Oppo Find X9 | Rs 74,999 | Rs 84,999 | Beebom tracker |
The Galaxy M47 one stings the most. Samsung launched it on 29 June and raised the price by up to Rs 8,000 within days of it going on sale.
It didn’t stop in July. In September, Deccan Herald reported another round: Samsung Galaxy A and F series hikes of up to Rs 14,500, Nothing raising the Phone (4a), (4a) Pro and (4b) series by Rs 1,000-5,000, and Oppo adding Rs 5,000-10,000 to the Find X9s and X9 Ultra. Xiaomi had warned back in late 2025 that DRAM costs would push its 2026 prices up, and the Redmi Note 15, Redmi 15 5G and Redmi A5 have all gone up since, according to Beebom’s tracker.
The quieter trick: less RAM
Not every brand raises the sticker price. Some just give you less. TrendForce says that in 2026, mid-range phones are reverting to 8GB as the core RAM configuration, 12GB is becoming the mainstream at the high end while 16GB adoption declines, and entry-level phones mostly sit around 4GB. So when you compare a 2026 phone with last year’s model, check the RAM and storage, not just the price.
Fewer phones being sold
Unsurprisingly, people are buying fewer phones.
- IDC expects India’s shipments to fall to roughly 128-130 million units in 2026, down from 152 million in 2025, with the second half dropping more than 15 per cent. Later IDC data reported by Moneycontrol put the full year even lower, at 125-128 million.
- Counterpoint expects India’s market to shrink 13 per cent this year, after June-quarter shipments fell 10 per cent, the biggest June-quarter decline in six years.
- Per IDC, India’s average selling price hit a record $315 in the June quarter, up 14.4 per cent year on year, and shipments of phones under $100 fell 74.3 per cent.
- Globally, IDC forecasts a 13.9 per cent drop to 1.09 billion units in 2026, which it calls the steepest annual contraction in smartphone history. IDC’s Nabila Popal said “the era of ultra cheap smartphones is over.”
What’s actually good about 2026 phones
It’s not all gloom. The phones themselves have improved in ways that matter to Indian users.
Batteries got huge
This is the best trend of the year. Silicon-carbon batteries have let brands fit massive cells into normal-sized phones. The Poco X8 Power has a 10,000mAh silicon-carbon battery with 100W charging, Snapdragon 6 Gen 5 and IP69K protection. The Vivo S2 FE also has a 10,000mAh battery with the Dimensity 7300e. The Oppo F35 and F35 Pro, launched this month, both carry 8,000mAh batteries with 80W charging, starting at Rs 38,999 and Rs 45,999.
If you’re coming from a 5,000mAh phone, two-day battery life is now realistic in the mid-range.
2nm flagship chips and on-device AI
At the top end, 2026 is the year of 2nm. At India Mobile Congress, iQOO and Xiaomi confirmed the iQOO 16 and Xiaomi 18 Pro for India on Qualcomm’s Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 series, and Motorola showed the Signature 27 with plans to bring it here. MediaTek’s Dimensity 9600 Pro, built on TSMC’s 2nm process, will debut in India on the Oppo Find X10 Pro Max, with an NPU that MediaTek says handles on-device models of up to 30 billion parameters.
Here’s the catch, though: running AI on the phone needs RAM. That’s why flagships aren’t cutting memory the way mid-rangers are, and why flagship prices are expected to go up too. Indian pricing for most of these hasn’t been announced yet.
Should you buy now or wait?
This is the question I get most in comments and DMs, so here’s my honest take.
Buy now if:
- Your current phone is dying. Waiting for prices to drop doesn’t make sense when Micron, Counterpoint and IDC all expect tight memory into 2027-28. Prices are more likely to go up again than down.
- You find a model still selling at old stock prices. Some retailers and online listings still have stock bought before a hike. If the price matches the original launch price, that’s a good deal by 2026 standards.
- You want a big-battery mid-ranger. The 8,000-10,000mAh phones are a genuine upgrade, and you get real value from them.
Wait if:
- Your phone works fine. IDC itself says buyers are stretching replacement cycles. Nothing wrong with doing the same. A new battery for your current phone costs far less than a new phone.
- You want a 2026 flagship. The iQOO 16, Xiaomi 18 Pro and Find X10 series are coming, and their launches usually put pressure on last year’s flagship prices. Wait for Indian pricing.
Practical tips
- Compare RAM and storage, not just price. A “cheaper” new model might have 8GB where last year’s had 12GB.
- Consider last year’s model. A 2025 phone with 12GB RAM bought before the hikes could be better value than a 2026 one with 8GB.
- Use exchange and EMI offers carefully. IDC expects brands to lean on financing and exchange schemes instead of price cuts this festive season. Do the math on total cost.
- Look at refurbished. Certified refurbished phones from reputable sellers are worth a look this year.
- 8GB is fine for most people. Unless you game heavily or want the newest on-device AI features, don’t stretch your budget for 12GB.
FAQ
Why are smartphone prices going up in India in 2026?
Mainly because memory chips got much more expensive. Memory makers have shifted capacity to HBM and server DRAM for AI data centers, so less is left for phones. A weaker rupee adds to import costs.
When will phone prices come down?
Not soon. Counterpoint expects memory prices to stay elevated until 2028, and Micron sees demand exceeding supply through 2027 and 2028.
Which phones got the biggest hikes?
Entry-level phones were hit hardest. Counterpoint says sub-Rs 10,000 phones rose about 32 per cent on average. Among individual models, the Samsung Galaxy M47 went up by up to Rs 8,000 within a week of sale.
Are brands reducing RAM in new phones?
Yes, in parts of the market. TrendForce says mid-range phones are reverting to 8GB as standard, and 16GB is becoming less common at the high end.
Is it a good time to buy a phone this Diwali?
If you need one, yes. Waiting is unlikely to get you a lower price. If your phone works fine, there’s no harm in holding on.